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Here at Free State Politics we're going to be following the following races/ballot initiatives:
President: Barack Obama v. John McCain
MD-01: Frank Kratovil v. Andy Harris
MD-06: Jennifer Dougherty v. Roscoe Bartlett
Question 1: Early Voting
Question 2: Slot Machines
In the interest of proving myself to be terrible at making predictions, I offer my take on tomorrow night's results:
In a rare moment of agreement with Karl Rove, I believe Barack Obama will win the election with 338 electoral votes:
As far as the popular vote goes, I say Obama will beat McCain 53%-46%, with Bob Barr and other third-party candidiates pulling in the remaining 1%. In Maryland, Obama will win handily as expected, 59%-41%.
The First District will either be a narrow win for either candidate; at this moment, I say turnout for Obama will give Frank Kratovil the coattails he needs to beat Harris. 51%-49% for Kratovil.
Jennifer Dougherty has been an aggressive campaigner, but ultimately I think the Republican tilt of the Sixth District will be too much for her to oveccome. 56%-44% for Roscoe Bartlett.
The debate over early voting has taken on a partisan character in Maryland, which all but assures that the early voting referendum will pass. 59%-41% for the Yes vote on Question 1.
Support for legalizing slot machines has had the momentum for most of this year, intensifying lately due to the economic crisis and concern over continued funding for education and other state programs. I and many others disagree that slots is the solution to that problem, but nevertheless it's a belief that anti-slots activists, despite their best efforts, have been unable to dislodge. 55%-45% for the Yes vote on Question 2.
Please use this thread to make your own predictions, thoughts about the election in general, etc.
The Post, however, does have an update on the 6th District race between Jennifer Dougherty and Roscoe Bartlett. She's got a harder hill to climb than does Frank Kratovil, but she seems determined to keep the pressure up. Given that Bartlett has, among other things, voted against reauthorizing the Civil Rights Act and participated in a ceremony for wannabe theocrat Sun Myung Moon, Dougherty needs all the help she can get. If you live in the 6th District, check out her website and see what you can do.
So what is it that northwest Maryland is getting from Bartlett? Marylanders are clearly not benefiting from any influence our representative might have over the laws that are passed or how money is spent. Its clearly not Bartlett's judgement. What is it?
Marc Korman has a posting up about Jennifer Dougherty, describing her campaign and his judgment of her chances. While you're thinking of reading it, why not help her beat Roscoe "Million Dollar Home" Bartlett by contributing to her campaign.
Incumbent Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett failed to report upwards of $1 million in income from property sales over the last few years, according to the Frederick News-Post. Bartlett claims it's nothing sinister, it was just an omission. As in, "Whoops, forgot about that million bucks I've got stuffed under my mattress. Sorry." Theoretically he could be fined for failing to mention it on his disclosure, but the likelihood is that he will instead be given a slap on the wrist after submitting corrected reports. But it turns out, as a side note, that Bartlett is worth $1.8 to $6.8 million.
Two things to take away from this:
1. Bartlett is a bit of a fat cat, as it turns out.
2. Bartlett is apparently so incompetent he can't even figure out how to account for all his income on financial disclosures.
As a (somewhat) low-information voter until relatively recently, I find there's a lot of information that is new to me, but which is old hat to those who have been more attentive. Perhaps the following falls in that category; if so, just walk on by; otherwise, this seems to be something MD-06 Democratic candidate for Congress Jennifer Dougherty might want to bring to the attention of the generally conservative and Christian folks she seeks to serve in Congress. While my objections to Mr. Roscoe and his ilk are based more on his partisan votes that run contrary to his constituents' interests, (e.g., SCHIP), I found this disturbing just the same.
Via a recent Wonkette post, I was surprised to see Congressman Roscoe Bartlett show up in a video put together by author John Gorenfeld, on Unification Church founder and leader Sun Myung Moon. Mr. Gorenfeld has recently written a book, "Bad Moon Rising: How Reverend Moon Created the Washington Times, Seduced the Religious Right and Built and American Kingdom", and the video is part of the marketing effort for the book. I've been reading Gorenfeld's blog and commentaries on Moon since about 2005; he seems to know his subject very well.
As a dyed in the wool Democrat, I will be supporting Jennifer for Congress in the 2008 election. I do have a few words of advice to give Jennifer and with risk of sounding crass, I hope she will at least take some of this under advisment!
The race for the 6th District is not just Frederick City! Sure, you can win Frederick City but there are 8 counties out there and all of them have different needs and issues! In the Western part of the state, there is the beginning of a Democrat defection to the McCain side. The district is on the whole is very conservative and there are some of the issues lean that way. The main two issues are - Guns and Pro-life . Both are make and break issues. These are the voters that you need to come to your side of the table! Some of these voters do not like the war but they love their guns!These are tricky issues and if you stay away from the local county fairs, you might not have to address them!
Please drop the "playing war" idea. I got lucky enough to hear this comment at a fund raiser and although it got some agreement from the audience, Jennifer was playing to the home team. There are too many families in the 6th district with sons and daughters in Iraq and to use the word " play " is not so good. Some of the voters out here take the military quite strongly and to have the idea of "playing war" to be put infront of them, brings nothing but trouble! Remember, we need Republican votes!
Please do not count on the Independent and Green vote (Green Get Repblicans Elected Every Novemeber) These are fickle voters. Although they are the fastest growing voter in the 6th district, they do not have a proven track record to vote for the Democrat. Just like some Republicans, they are one issue voters and please do not promise them more then you can deliver! They will not forget! Please go to a Green Get Out the Vote meeting. See if you can mix the issues together with a conservative twist.
The Republican Party cannot wait to get a hold of you and your stand on the issues of the day!!! Truly, this can be a downfall. Old Roscoe has not stayed in for 14 plus years for nothing! He has a fairly big war chest and he will use everyone from Alex Mooney, Rick Welden, and the like, to the NRA to bring you down. There are also the Democrats who have not forgtten the election of 2005! The one where you just did not get mad, you got even and now sits a Republican Mayor. Running against Roscoe's record seems like a great plan but the old guy is funny. He will change at the drop of a dime and make a vote in congress that you never saw coming! He will pull out that Peak Oil stuff and all of the advisors and do another dog and pony show. Unless you can say more then "pond scum " do not go there! Brush up on the war, homeland defence, energy, and the ecomony! Roscoe can make the issues not just locally but nationally and you must be ready!
Democrats want to see Jennifer win but there just is not enough of us out here to claim victory so easily! It is going to take a whole bunch of money, somewhere in $500,000.00 to beat Roscoe. Democrats out here do not give very easily and they do not give much. Remember, Democrats want to fall in love with their candidate they do not fall in line! It will not take much to mustard up a backlash and then oh boy! we are cooked!
I am not trying to rain on Jennifer's show but I am offering a little bit of advice. Don't throw Duck away too quickly. He had a great cross over vote and that is information that can be useful. If you do not want his counsel, tell him straight away, he will leave you alone! That might be best for you. You are who you are and no one should change you!!
Sad to say that Republians are dancing about Jennifer in 2008! It is up her to make the dance a little less exciting!
