| Stephanie Dray does a good job speculating on Barack Obama's chances in Maryland. But given the fact that Hillary Clinton is doing extremely well in the polls and shows no sign of flagging -- not to mention the fact that Clinton's campaign organization is extremely well-organized and funded -- and I wonder if, by the time Maryland gets around to voting on Feb. 12, the race will have already been decided the week before, on Super Tuesday. I know a lot of people have pointed to Joe Lieberman's standing this time in 2003 as evidence that an upset is possible, but you have to remember that the distance between Lieberman and Howard Dean, and between the Democratic candidates and the base, was much, much greater than it is today. Clinton may be the most hawkish of the Democrats, but she has (seemingly) moderated her hawkishness to a great extent. Plus, her personal connection to the base is stronger and deeper than Lieberman's ever was. That said, Obama's got a lot of money too, and a pretty good organization -- and he's not afraid to mix it up with HRC either. So we might have a competitive race on Feb. 12 after all. |
