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The Potomac Primary: It Might Actually Matter!

by: Isaac Smith

Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 01:44 PM EST


Like most people, I've been pretty pessimistic about the odds of Maryland actually having an influential role in the presidential nomination process. But could I be wrong? Chris Bowers noted a while back that it's unlikely that the Democratic nomination will be settled by Super Tuesday, which is coming up in little more than a week. And it now looks like Maryland (along with Washington, DC and Virginia) are preparing for that possibility:

With no other states holding primaries or caucuses that day, leaders in both parties are looking forward to their states playing an unprecedented role.

"Virginia could be the nail in someone's coffin," said Del. Christopher B. Saxman (R-Staunton), state co-chairman for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Or not. For the moment, the influence that the Feb. 12 contests might exert is anyone's guess.

"After New Hampshire, nobody in their right mind should predict anything," said Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, referring to the dramatic Jan. 8 primary victory of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), which took pollsters and pundits by surprise.

As for who would win Maryland, it's anybody's guess. Assuming the race is not settled on either side, the most recent polls from a month ago suggested Hillary Clinton and John McCain would each get the nod. I don't know about the GOP race, but I would wager that, if African-Americans turn out for Barack Obama the way they did in South Carolina this past Saturday, he'll have the Free State locked up, Martin O'Malley, et al, be damned.

Speaking of South Carolina, here's Obama's excellent victory speech from Saturday night:

Isaac Smith :: The Potomac Primary: It Might Actually Matter!
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I agree wholeheartedly (3.00 / 1)
Today as I watched three members of the Kennedy family stand together endorsing Sen. Barack Obama I couldn't help but wonder one thing. What was KKT thinking? I am so disappointed that the daughter of the late Sen. Robert Kennedy could choose to support the campaign of divisiveness. Bobby was the champion of possibility, of asking "Why not?" I have been inspired by Sen. Obama. I have registered to volunteer with his campaign here in Maryland. We are going to matter. It is time to leave the barn door open and let the Clinton machine slip out and let a new team come in. A team that believes in fairness, believes in openness, believes that there is a time for audacity and a time for hope. I do not believe that our former Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend will be reading what we write here. In hopes that someone she trusts does I join other Marylanders in saying, Kathleen it is time to come home. Reject the way the Clintons have decided to run their campaign. Reject the use of the same Newt Gingrich playbook that tore this nation a part. Come home to the ticket of hope and support Sen. Barack Obama.

Maryland Dems look like SC Dems demographically (4.00 / 2)
except that our Dems are happily more prosperous.  Roughly 45-50% of each party is African-American.  My hunch is that Obama would do even better among Black Marylanders than Black South Carolinians, KKT's killer endorsement of Hillary Clinton notwithstanding ;-), because Black Marylanders, like other Marylanders, are relatively well educated and prosperous and will identify even more with him on multiple levels.  

Perhaps O'Malley and Mikulski's endorsements will motivate an extra get out the vote by party operatives for HRC, but I see that countered by a possible de facto "nunc pro tunc" revocation of late of Bill Clinton's perceived iconic status as the "first Black [sic] president" as mused by Princeton's Professor Toni Morrison in 1998 in a New Yorker article.  Worth noting that Professor Morrison is now an active supporter of Barack Obama.


Prof. Toni Morrison (4.00 / 1)
announced her endorsement of Sen. Obama shortly after Caroline, Rep. Patrick and Sen. Edward Kennedy. The shocker in the KKT endorsement is that she said that Kerry and Robert, Jr. are joining her in endorsing Sen. Clinton. As soon as I heard that I sent him an e-mail saying shame on you. It has not been since June '68 that we have had such a great chance of change on a fundementally human level.
http://robertfkennedyjr.com/
There is a contact link at the bottom of the page.

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